Covid Lectures Part 2: What the Imperial College Report said
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| Ru.......uuuuuuun! |
Yesterday, we looked at some general issues with epidemiological modelling: the lack of a fully rounded biological understanding of the disease being modelled; the circularity in estimating the Reproduction Number from the number of cases, and then predicting the number of cases from the Reproduction Number; the cascading estimates-within-estimates, and assumptions-within-assumptions of epidemiological models, some of which are not even consciously identified and accounted for by the epidemiologists; the problems with data, and so on.
2.1 Oh No, It's Exponential! Flatten the Curve!
Today, we will turn from this abstract discussion of epidemiology to an analysis of one of the most influential models in the world for Covid-19. This is what came to be known as the “Imperial College Report” from the University of that name in London. The report was prepared not by the Imperial College alone, but jointly with a group of other disease-modelling institutions, including a WHO body called the WHO Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling. So the WHO is among those who wrote this report, and bears as much responsibility for it as the Imperial College. Professor Neil Ferguson, a British epidemiologist from the Imperial College, led this group. He was also advising the British government on Covid-19, and has been a consultant to the WHO for many years.
There were several reports, starting January this year, from the Ferguson-led “Covid-19 Response Team”, which included the WHO Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling. I am going to call them the “Covid Experts Group”. Of these reports, the one which burst onto the world stage was dated March 16th, in which it was predicted that if Covid-19 was allowed to spread unchecked, 510,000 would die in the United Kingdom, and 2.2 million in the United States of America (5).
This report came on the heels of an apparent change of heart on the part of the UK Government in deciding to take stronger public measures against Covid-19 than it had taken so far. The March 16th report appears to have been an attempt to explain the change in policy: “Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks.”
But what might have been a rather dull domestic matter for the UK, captured the world’s imagination like nothing else since the Beatles. Within days almost the entire world was in lockdown. From India to South Africa to the USA all work was stopped, businesses closed, travel banned, and people were instructed to stay strictly within their homes until the storm had passed, no one knew when.
The world ground to a halt.
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| By RCraig09 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=88883759 |
Next to these projected scenarios were the “flattened” curves of lockdown. They rose but gently, like the famous rolling hills of England, only so high as the straight black or red line showing the point of a country’s hospital or ventilator-capacity. That straight line would save us from disaster, and we had to stay under it by locking down at home to stop the spread of disease. This was how we would “flatten the curve”.
It sounds good, but does it really add up? To find out, we need to follow the epidemiologists as they make their calculations.
2.2 Getting Off to the Wrong Start with "R"
Central to the notion of “flattening the curve” is the epidemiologist’s theory that if the “Reproduction Number” or “R” is at a value below 1, the disease peters out. So long as the R is at or above the value of 1, it keeps spreading through the community. Disease control, therefore, requires public measures that would reduce the R value to below 1.
In a paper written in 2004, Neil Ferguson and colleagues argue that R is especially useful when studying an emerging pathogen because it can be readily estimated from “the data collected from the first few hundred people infected in a novel disease outbreak” (10).
But in reality, calculating the R for Covid-19 was not so easy for the Ferguson-led Covid Experts Group.
To estimate R, they first needed to estimate the number of cases in Wuhan, China, as at the time that was the only known place of outbreak. But they immediately ran into difficulties.
The Covid Experts Group did not believe the figures of the Chinese government were reliable, so they were faced with the problem of having to estimate the number of cases themselves. They decided to do this by looking at the people with Covid-19 who had travelled out of Wuhan to other countries by mid-January. At this time, this amounted to the impressive numbe
But days later they discovered they had been wrong, as they had missed some of, indeed, more than half, the exported cases. The correct number it turned out was 7, and not 3. So, on January 22nd, the Covid Experts Group took out a revised report changing their estimate to 4000 cases (2). On January 25th, on the basis of these estimated 4000 cases in Wuhan, the Covid Experts Group took out a rep
The problem with this is that, even assuming the Covid Experts Group estimate of cases in Wuhan was correct (which we will see later that it was not), the R derived from these cases of 2.6 in a range of 1.5 to 3.5 is simply incoherent. According to Neil Ferguson’s own earlier work, which is cross-referenced by the Covid Experts Group throughout its series of reports, an R of 1.7 signifies a moderate rate of transmission, while an R of 2 signifies a high one (11). So the lower end of the Covid Experts Group’s R range, at 1.5, is below moderate rates of transmission; the central estimate, at 2.6, is just above the threshold R for a high rate of transmission; and the upper end, at 3.5, is miles above the high transmission threshold.
This means that the Covid Experts Group began with an R that was in a range that gave you three entirely different types of epidemic – low, high and “are-you-kidding” high. Now, in order to see this immediately, you would have to be an epidemiologist. The only people who could have pointed out this confusion in the numbers were the epidemiologists themselves. They should have started pointing out the limitations of any modelling for Covid-19 right from the start, when problems with estimating the number of cases in Wuhan emerged. At this point they should have directed policy-makers to look elsewhere for answers, as the situation did not lend itself to good modelling (assuming there is such a thing).
So it is just not good enough for some to claim, as many supporters of Neil Ferguson and other epidemiologists do, that scientists do not decide policy, and they only present the science. Yes, they only present the science, but they and only they can alert the non-scientists to the inconsistencies, contradictions and untested or unverifiable assumptions in their work. But the epidemiologists did not do so. They allowed people to believe that there was a clear signal from their calculations, when in fact, right from the start, there was not.
Even though the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling was part of the Covid Experts Group which estimated an R of 2.6 in a range of 1.5 to 3.5 in their January 25th report, a month later, on February 28th, the WHO confirmed a much lower R, in the range of 2 to 2.5, in a Joint Mission Report with China (13). At this point, the WHO ought to have disclosed, and explained why, it had revised its estimate of R from the earlier one in the Imperial College report of January 25th, but this was never done. This is something the WHO should be asked to explain.
2.3 Catch Me if You Can: The Ever Changing "R"
Two weeks after the WHO-China Joint Mission Report, on March 16th, the Covid Experts Group also changed their R estimate to 2.4 in a range of 2 to 2.6 (5). They said this revision was based on “fits” to the early growth rate of the disease in Wuhan. Since their January 25th estimate of R was also based on a fit to their then estimate of cases in Wuhan, this reference to a new “fit” to Wuhan cases indicates the Covid Experts Group had changed their minds yet again about the numbers of cases in Wuhan in January, but they do not say what their new estimate of cases was. In total, this makes three different estimates of cases by the Covid Experts Group for the same period in Wuhan, one of which is unstated.
The Covid Experts Group’s new estimate of R doesn’t last long. Ten days later, in a new report, dated March 26th, they again revise their R to 3, in a range of 2.4 to 3.3 (7). Four days later, on March 30th, they come out with yet another report with yet another initial R, 3.87, in a range of 3.01 to 4.66 (8). Observe how drastically the R keeps changing. The R in their report of March 30th is not even in the same range as their R in the March 16th report. No explanation is given for why the R has changed a fourth time; it appears to be the result of using different equations for the modelling. But, if this is the case, there is no explanation for why the model was changed, or what the implication of this change might be on the Covid Experts Group’s earlier estimates.
In this way, in the space of two weeks in the second half of March, the Covid Experts Group change their initial R estimate thrice, taking the total number of revisions of the initial R to four, including their first estimate which was made in the report of January 25th. These are the half-way-reasoned and ever-changing estimates based on which the world went into lockdown.
2.4 Making It Up As You Go Along
Central to the logic of the “flatten the curve” policy advocated by epidemiologists like the Covid Experts Group was the question of ventilator-demand. This was a key parameter for estimating the threshold below which Covid-19 infections had to be “suppressed”. You would have thought that there would be careful analysis behind the estimation of ventilator-demand. But in the March 16th report, the Covid Experts Group seems to have simply cast about among some English doctors to get a fix on ventilator-demand; the report says that an estimated 30% of those hospitalized would need ventilators or Extra-Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation machines (“ECMOs”) based on a “personal communication” from someone called Professor Nicholas Hart. This is the chaotic and ad hoc manner in which the Covid Experts Group estimated ventilator-demand, the central parameter for their recommendation of suppression measures.
It gets more interesting. Death followed ventilators into the Covid Experts Group calculations in a new way that might not have been connected with Covid-19. It is well-known that ventilators are associated with a high rate of death – 30 to 50%. This is because people on ventilators are prone to getting VAP – Ventilator Acquired Pneumonia - and dying of that. In the March 16th report, our diligent modellers seem to have included the 50% mortality associated with ventilators into their calculations: “Based on expert clinical opinion we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die”. Do you see how this may have inflated their death figures?
After losing quite few Covid-19 patients to ventilators (it was reported that 80% of patients in New York were dying on ventilators, as opposed to the expected rate of 30 to 50% (34)) doctors in the West seem to have revised their treatment protocols and held off ventilator-use with improving outcomes. In fact, as we shall see later in this discussion, ventilators left the picture in Europe and the USA almost as quickly as they had entered it, with surged critical care units in the UK and USA being wound down without seeing any patients. But we all went into lockdown to save the ventilators.
There was also a fundamental lack of consistency in the Covid Experts Group’s approach. Key determinants were simply discarded, without explanation, as matters progressed. For example, when the Covid Experts Group recommended “suppression” in their report of March 16th, this was defined as a combination of measures in which workplace contact was to be reduced by only 25% and the rest of social distancing was for settings outside of the home, work and school. So this report was really calling for the suspension of social and leisure activities (for which it recommended 75% reduction) and not of economic activity, which was to be maintained at 75%. Suppression was explicitly described as a measure “short of a complete lockdown which additionally prevents people going to work”. Other suppression measures recommended were isolation at home of sick people for 7 days, voluntary home quarantine by household members of those falling ill for 14 days and home isolation of the elderly above 79 years of age. Schools and 25% of Universities were to be kept open. Home isolation was also stated to result in an increase in household contact rates by 25 to 50 percent. These measures were considered to be sufficient to contain the epidemic by driving the R to below 1.
But in their report of March 26th, the Covid Experts Group set a far more severe suppression parameter of a blanket 75% reduction in contact. There is no explanation for why they abandoned their earlier recommendation about keeping workplace activity at 75%, or the effects on their calculations of the increase in household contacts by 25-50% from home quarantine mentioned in the earlier March 16th report. In this report, they predicted 7 billion infections globally and 40 million deaths in the unmitigated scenario.
Some very basic questions arise here: what is the meaning of a 75%, or any percent of reduction in contact, anyway? On what basis are you saying that keeping people at home results in this level of reduction of contact? What about the contact which continues for the provision of essential services? In some countries, even in some cities in the developing world, just the number of essential and grocery services, along with the activity required to avail of them, would amount to contact levels equivalent to the full contact levels of many European cities, or even entire countries. We are thinner and thinner on explanation, but that is normal in the world of epidemiology.
Four days after the March 26th report, the Covid Experts Group comes out with yet another report, this time to prove that suppression measures are working to drive the R down (8). In this report, the Covid Experts Group say what I explained at the start of this discussion, that epidemic parameters cannot be inferred accurately from the case data because: “Estimating reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-2 presents challenges due to the high proportion of infections not detected by the health system and regular changes in testing policies, resulting in different proportions of infections being detected over time and between countries. Most countries so far only have the capacity to test a small proportion of suspected cases and tests are reserved for severely ill patients or for high risk groups (e.g. contacts of cases). Looking at case data, therefore, gives a systemically biased view of trends.”
This is correct, but in many of their preceding reports the Covid Experts Group have estimated several things using case data! In the March 16th report, their case fatality rate and infection fatality rate were calculated using reported case data (4, 5, 9). On March 24th, they came out with a report arguing that China’s containment policies worked to drive down the R based on Chinese case data (6). In their report of January 25th, they had referred to case data as a key determinant of transmission rates: “If a clear downwards trend is observed in the numbers of new cases, that would indicate that control measures and behavioural changes can substantially reduce the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV.” Public opinion, experts and governments all over the world had been influenced to adopt extreme lockdown measures based on these case number-based calculations, and now the Covid Experts Group was saying that all this was based on the wrong measure – unreliable case data!
At this point, the Covid Experts Group should have retracted everything it had said in its earlier reports. But being epidemiologists, they felt themselves under no imperative to retract anything just because their assumptions for it were utterly wrong. They just decided to change the determinants in their calculations from case data to death data, and moved smoothly on: “An alternative way to estimate the course of the epidemic is to back calculate infections from observed deaths.”
In fact, death data is subject to the same biases and uncertainties from reporting lags and definitional disputes as are case data. We saw this with the debates over deaths “by” vs. “with” Covid-19 and the belated discovery of deaths in nursing homes. At the time of the Covid Experts Group’s reports of late March that relied on mortality data, many countries like Italy, the UK and France had not yet begun including their nursing home and other ex-hospital deaths in their daily death reports in Europe, the UK and USA. On March 23rd the Mayor of Bergamo in Northern Italy had said the death toll may be four times that which was being reported at the time (35). The United Kingdom began including care home deaths in its daily mortality reports only a month later, on April 29th. But the Covid Experts Group simply asserts in the March 30th report that, “Reported deaths are likely to be more reliable”.
How are you going to decide the connection between deaths and cases – modelling again! And “fitting”: “In this report, we fit a novel Bayesian mechanistic model of the infection cycle to observed deaths in 11 European countries, inferring plausible upper and lower bounds of the total populations infected (attack rates), case detection probabilities and the reproduction number over time.”
Another of the Covid Experts Group’s estimates that kept changing was the “doubling rate”, i.e., the rate at which they said cases would double over time. On February 15th, a month before their alarming report of March 16th, the Covid Experts Group estimated the doubling time of the epidemic to be 7 days based, they say, on genetic information about Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19 disease (3A).
One gets a sense that all through January and February, the Covid Experts Group were fairly confident about their calculations. But then in mid-March there was a sudden awakening when cases in Europe exploded, doubling much faster than had been estimated by them. In the first week of March, alarming reports from Northern Italy began to come in of people falling ill in massive numbers. Hospitals and morgues were said to be completely overwhelmed. The obituary section of the L’Eco di Bergamo, the main newspaper of Bergamo in Northern Italy, had expanded from half a section in late February, to 3 pages, then to 6 pages, and then to 10 pages end-to-end by March 10th (71). The Covid Experts Group hints at having got a shock from Italy in its report of March 16th when it says that its conclusions had only “been reached in the last few days” based on the experience in Italy and the UK, and that previous planning estimates had “assumed half the demand now estimated”. They revised their doubling rate to 5 days based on, they said, “the observed cumulative number of deaths in [Great Britain] or the US seen by 14th March 2020”.
But even this seems not to have matched the pattern of the epidemic in the following days. Ten days later, in their March 26th report, the Covid Experts Group again revised their doubling rate to 3 days based, they said, on observed deaths in Europe.
It is based on this 3-day doubling rate of deaths that the Covid Experts Group calculated their third new R in their March 26th report of 3 in a range of 2.4 to 3.3. As discussed earlier, four days later, on March 30th, they revised their starting R estimate a fourth time to 3.87.
2.5 Matching Outcomes to ResultsIn the March 30th, report the Covid Experts Group sets out to prove that the lockdowns, which by then had been imposed in various European countries in the previous 2-3 weeks, were driving down the starting R, as they had predicted. So the increase in their estimate of the starting R from 3 to 3.87 has the happy effect of showing an even larger decrease in the R, 64% declare the Covid Experts Group proudly, than if the lower initial R of 3, in the report of four days back, had been used.
In order to really judge whether the Covid Experts Group modelling was working, they should have given us a comparison of the observed outbreak pattern with the one predicted in their earlier reports. But they did not do that. They came with a new model based on the observed deaths. They said that this model was “cross-validated” because when they ran it after withholding three days of data, the modelled forecast of deaths for those three days was the same as the observed deaths. But given that the model itself was fitted to produce the observed deaths, this is hardly surprising. You don’t need to be an epidemiologist to predict that an epidemic pattern will hold for three days into the future – not much is likely to change in just three days!
Using this new model, the Covid Experts Group say that their back-calculation from deaths shows that the R has slowed. Even assuming that the R has slowed, how are you going to link this slowing down to the suppression measures? They “assume” it: “Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number – a measure of transmission – are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour.” So, they are discounting any changes in behaviour, apart from government-mandated stay-at-home, as a driver of the R. Does this mean that they are not accounting for the normal behaviour of sick people? Seriously ill people would, by reason of their infirmity, sharply reduce their activities and levels of contact with others, regardless of containment measures. Is the Covid Experts Group here assuming full levels of activity and contact, even of those that have been put onto ventilators?
These are questions that the Covid Experts Group should be asked, because the natural case isolation that occurs when people fall very ill is an accepted phenomenon even in epidemiological work. Even Neil Ferguson’s own previous work, concedes this. Writing in 2008, Ferguson and colleagues analysed three different models for the containment of pandemics, and each model assumed that even in the absence of intervention, clinical disease affects individual contact-related behaviour (12). This paper also talks about the concept of pathogenicity: the probability of developing symptoms if infected; and the natural history of the pathogen, i.e., the course it takes in the host body. But there is nothing to show that these effects were factored into the Covid Experts Group’s calculations of billions of cases in the unmitigated scenario.
Apart from the question of a spreading disease automatically resulting in reduced levels of contact, the Covid Experts Group also fails to consider other reasons that might account for the claimed reduction in the R such as the virus losing potency as it transmits, or finding fewer people that are vulnerable to its worst effects. Viral burn out has been noticed in other diseases by scientists, though there is, as yet, no scientific explanation for it (38).
Regarding the number of cases, the Covid Experts Group says in the report of March 30th that: “The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected persons become immediately less infectious through the intervention.” How can they make an assumption of “immediate” decline in infectiousness with a disease having an infectious period of several days and even weeks; clinical studies of some Covid-19 patients showed viral shedding (a measure of infectiousness) for several weeks after the onset of symptoms (21)? These are the types of questions that we need to be asking the epidemiologists.
Even if we are to believe that the R has declined because of suppression measures, it has come so close to the critical value of 1 very quickly considering that in their earlier reports, the Covid Experts Group were looking at timelines of 5 and 8 months, with the epidemic taking several months to subside, even with the highest level of suppression measures.
2.6 Herd Immunity
The closer you look at the Covid Experts Group’s work, the more incoherent it becomes. Even when claiming success with suppression measures having drastically driven down the R in Europe, the Covid Experts Group says that suppression measures will have to remain in place indefinitely until a vaccine or medicines are discovered. Otherwise, they say, the epidemic will re-emerge on the lifting of measures: “the more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity” (5).
But this contradicts their starting premise that the point of suppression is to drive the R below the value of 1 at which point the disease will peter out. In fact, the whole argument of the Covid Experts Group for adopting drastic suppression measures, rather than mitigation ones, was that only suppression could drive the R below 1. If the theory of R is correct, then why should you have to wait for vaccines or drugs to be discovered? It should be enough to wait till the R is below 1.
None of this makes any sense. We find ourselves at the end of March, and about 3 weeks of suppression measures, in the position of having apparently driven the R down to close to 1 in a fraction of the time that was anticipated, but no closer to the end of the epidemic than when we started listening to the epidemiologists.
....To be continued
Suranya Aiyar is trained in mathematics at St. Stephen’s College, India and law at Oxford University, UK and New York University, USA. She lives in New Delhi, India, with her husband and two children.
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NOTES AND REFERENCES
a. 1 lakh = 100,000; 1 crore = 10 million
(1) Report 1: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019 n-CoV) cases in Wuhan City, China, COVID -19 Response Team, 17 January 2020. Link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-1-case-estimates-of-covid-19/
(2) Report 2: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China, COVD -19 Response Team, 22 January 2020. Link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-2-update-case-estimates-covid-19/
(3) Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV, COVID -19 Response Team, 25 January 2020. Link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-3-transmissibility-of-covid-19/
(3A) Report 5: Phylogenetic analysis of Sars-CoV-2, COVID -19 Response Team, 15 February 2020. Link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-5-phylogenetics-of-sars-cov-2/
(4) Report 7: Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights, COVID -19 Response Team, 9 March 2020. Link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-7-repatriation-flights-covid-19/
(5) Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, COVID -19 Response Team, 16 March 2020. Link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mr-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/
(6) Report 11: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment, COVID -19 Response Team, 24 March 2020. Link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-11-china-exiting-social-distancing/
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(24) Hospitals as health factories and the coronavirus epidemic, Giorgina Barbara Piccoli, Journal of Nephrology (2020) 33: 189-191, 21 March 2020. Link: https://paperity.org/p/237906528/hospitals-as-health-factories-and-the-coronavirus-epidemic
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(27) Police use sjamboks and rubber bullets to enforce Hillbrow lockdown, Micah Reddy & Simon Allison, Mail & Guardian, 31 March 2020. Link: https://mg.co.za/article/2020-03-31-police-use-sjamboks-and-rubber-bullets-to-enforce-hillbrow-lockdown/
(28) Police kill three people in three days of lockdown. This is normal for South Africa, GroundUp, 1 April 2020. Link: https://www.groundup.org.za/article/police-kill-three-people-three-days-lockdown-normal-south-africa-data-reveals/
(29) Ebola – Myths, Realities and Structural Violence, Annie Wilkinson and Melissa Leach, African Affairs, pp.1-13, 4 December 2014. Link: http://www.ebola-anthropology.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Briefing-Ebola-Myths-Realites-and-Structural-Violence.pdf
(30) Barriers to supportive care during the Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa: Results of a qualitative study, Loignon et al., PLOS ONE, 5 September 2018. Link: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0201091
(31) Plague Warriors: The Deadly Ebola Outbreak in Zaire, Laurie Garret, Vanity Fair 1 August 1995. Link: https://archive.vanityfair.com/article/1995/8/plague-warriors.
(32) Ebola and Learning Lessons from Moral Failures: Who cares about Ethics? Maxwell J. Smith and Ross E.G. Upshur, Public Health Ethics, Vol 8, No. 3, 305, 17 October 2015. Link: https://academic.oup.com/phe/article/8/3/305/2362913
(33) Doctor’s death from coronavirus sparks a digital uprising, rattling China’s leaders, Washington Post, 7 February 2020. Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/doctors-death-from-coronavirus-sparks-a-digital-uprising-rattling-chinas-leaders/2020/02/07/a4cb3492-4998-11ea-8a1f-de1597be6cbc_story.html; Reasons for healthcare workers becoming infected with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Wang et al., Journal of Hospital Infection, March 2020. Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7134479/
(34) 80% of New York’s coronavirus patients who are put on ventilators ultimately die, and some doctors are trying to stop using them, Business Insider, Sinead Baker, 9 April 2020. Link: https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/80-of-new-yorks-coronavirus-patients-who-are-put-on-ventilators-ultimately-die-and-some-doctors-are-trying-to-stop-using-them/articleshow/75065623.cms
(35) Italian mayor claims the true death toll from Covid-19 likely to be much higher, euronews.com, 21 March 2020. Link: https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/21/italian-mayor-claims-the-true-death-toll-from-covid-19-likely-to-be-much-higher
(36) ‘India has tremendous capacity to combat Covid-19’: WHO Executive Director, 24 March 2020. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bydILYTQUsA
(37) Covid 19: Tablighi Jamaat attendee attempts suicide from 6th floor of Delhi Hospital, PTI, Deccan Herald, 2 April 2020. Link: https://www.deccanherald.com/national/covid-19-tablighi-jamaat-attendee-attempts-suicide-from-6th-floor-of-delhi-hospital-820254.html
(38) Problems in identifying the origins of an outbreak, Tom Jefferson & Carl Heneghan, 3 April 2020, https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/problems-in-identifying-the-origins-of-an-outbreak/; Global experts go head-to-head over claims the coronavirus ‘no longer exists clinically’, CNBC Report, 2 June 2020. Link https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/claim-coronavirus-no-longer-exists-provokes-controversy.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard&fbclid=IwAR2vY80wwIBIiCGbFawFU-75UoYf_junth2xy4ogfbQ8ZKaJqmfX1-YM0Lc; Coronavirus could ‘burn out’ on its own before we have a working vaccine: Former WHO chief, Firstpost, 20 May 2020. Link: https://www.firstpost.com/health/coronavirus-could-burn-out-on-its-own-before-we-have-a-working-vaccine-former-who-chief-8387911.html
(39) Kya WHO ne lockdown ka sujhav diya hai? Prime Time with Ravish Kumar, 1 May 2020 (in Hindi). Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNzlq1whlq4
(40) Doxycycline and ivermectin combo may be new effective Covid-19 treatment, Medical Dialogues, 18 May 2020. Link: https://medicaldialogues.in/medicine/news/doxycycline-and-ivermectin-combo-may-be-new-effective-covid-19-treatment-65868
(41) Unexpected cause of death in younger Covid-19 patients is related to blood clotting, BioSpace, 28 April 2020. Link: https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-increases-risk-of-heart-attacks-and-stroke/?fbclid=IwAR3wum5CgAyBrlCQ2eBwQCy_sU2Evq4iuyV4dqhT7ZP5efdSOVb_KWPkUnw
(42) Revised Guidelines on Clinical Management of Covid-19, Government of India, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, 31 March 2020. Link: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/RevisedNationalClinicalManagementGuidelineforCOVID1931032020.pdf
(43) Avigan trials will continue in Japan with drug efficacy unclear, Nikkei Asian Review, 21 May 2020. Link: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Pharmaceuticals/Avigan-trials-will-continue-in-Japan-with-drug-efficacy-unclear ;Wanted Covid-19 patients in Japan…..for clinical trials, The Japan Times, 24 June 2020. Link: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/24/national/science-health/japan-coronavirus-patients-vaccine-trials/;Bangladesh Medical College Hospital Physician see ‘astounding results’ with drug combination targeting Covid-19, Trial Sites News, 18 May 2020. Link: https://www.trialsitenews.com/bangladesh-medical-college-hospital-physician-see-astounding-results-with-drug-combination-targeting-covid-19/; CSIR identifies top 25 drugs/drug candidates for repurposing, Ministry of Science & Technology, 30 April 2020. Link: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1619671.
(44) Sermo website: https://www.sermo.com/methodology/
(45) Protecting health-care workers from subclinical coronavirus infection, Chang et al., The Lancet, Correspondence, Vol. 8, March 2020, published online 13 February 2020. Link: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30066-7.pdf; Fewer deaths in Veneto offer clues for fight against virus, Financial Times, April 5, 2020. Link: https://www.ft.com/content/9c75d47f-49ee-4613-add1-a692b97d95d3; Offline: COVID-19 and the NHS – “a national scandal”, Richard Horton, Comment, The Lancet, Vol. 395, 28 March 2020. Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext; Italian doctors warned hospitals are coronavirus vectors. One Russian region proves their point, The Moscow Times, 9 April 2020. Link: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/09/italian-doctors-warned-hospitals-are-coronavirus-vectors-one-russian-region-proves-their-point-a69924
Woman is first UK victim to die of coronavirus caught in hospital, The Guardian, 24 March 2020. Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/woman-first-uk-victim-die-coronavirus-caught-hospital-marita-edwards, We’ve become the ‘super-spreaders’: NHS doctor pleads for more protective equipment, Yahoo News, UK, 18 March 2020. https://sports.yahoo.com/dr-nishant-joshi-coronavirus-protective-masks-equioment-130525108.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEPC0bVREj6Nbb_kjlYlxY4XDEKlAUxdxO1HO__5G858semg6WxHnPlD7Q4diQV6TpI82OS_uTKs5wS1I61YuMVQ_ksQuyYW7DZr-_6ZVIDiX81iyLXNxxFPdub8AyM-safropIQ1qHKVzeWiyGrQWh0LGZScW0Yy5nd2tFUdvtE ; When our hospitals are the pandemic superspreaders, The American Conservative, 20 April 2020. Link: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/when-our-hospitals-are-the-pandemic-superspreaders/
(46) “Flattening the curve on COVID-19: How Korea responded to a pandemic using ICT”, publication of the Government of the Republic of Korea dated 11 May 2020.
(47) Blood clots in severe Covid-19 patients leave their clinicians with clues about the illness – but no proven treatments, statnews.com, 16 April 2020. Link: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/blood-clots-coronavirus-tpa/; Doctors are discovering coronavirus causes blood clots harming organs from brains to toes, The Print, 5 May 2020. Link: https://theprint.in/health/doctors-are-discovering-coronavirus-causes-blood-clots-harming-organs-from-brain-to-toes/414479/
(48) Prince Charles to open NHS Nightingale to treat Covid-19 patients, The Guardian, 3 April 2020. Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/prince-charles-to-open-nhs-nightingale-to-treat-covid-19-patients
(49) US Field Hospitals stand down, most without treating any Covid-19 patients, npr.org, 7 May 2020. Link: https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients; London NHS Nightingale hospital will shut next week, The Guardian, 4 May 2020. Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/london-nhs-nightingale-hospital-placed-on-standby
(50) Covid-19: Nightingale hospitals set to shutdown after seeing few patients, BMJ 2020; 369, 7 May 2020. Link: https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1860
(51) Improvisation and retraining may be key to saving patients in New York’s ICUs, npr.org, 8 April 2020. Link: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/08/830153837/improvisation-and-retraining-may-be-key-to-saving-patients-in-new-yorks-icus
(52) Why ventilators may not be working as well for Covid-19 patients as doctors hoped, Time, 16 April 2020. Link: https://time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/
(53) From NYC ICU, Cameron Kyle-Sidell, 31 March 2020. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9GYTc53r2o
(54) Webinar on avoiding intubation and initial ventilation in Covid-19, EMCrit, 4 April 2020. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZqNiQxJLSU
(55) Management of Covid-19 respiratory distress, John J. Marini and Luciano Gattinoni, JAMA Insights, Clinical Update, 24 April 2020. Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765302
(56) Do Covid-19 vent protocols need a second look? https://www.webmd.com/coronavirus-in-context/video/coronavirus-in-context-cameron-kyle-sidell
(57) NHS Nightingale chief says NHS must ‘never go back’ to old bureaucratic ways, The Independent, 28 April 2020. Link:
(58) Doctors face troubling question: are they treating coronavirus correctly? The New York Times, 14 April 2020. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp5RMutCNoI. Note that the doctors’ research referred to as an “editorial” in this report was published in a number of formal papers subsequently and can be accessed here: Covid-19 pneumonia: different respiratory treatments for different phenotypes? Gattinoni et al., Intensive Care Medicine, 46, pg. 1099, 14 April 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-020-06033-2?tk=eo_8ec810cc-57e5-4bc1-bb85-e22b9e068904_JOUOgWdVMbWC4XIzzfHwSizVS09ocy3MoJOK and Management of Covid-19 respiratory distress, John J Marini and Luciano Gattinoni, JAMA Insights, Clinical Update, 24 April 2020. Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765302
(59) Advisory on the use of hydroxy-chloroquine as prophylaxis for SARS-CoV-2 infection, Indian Council of Medical Research, 22 March 2020. Link: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/AdvisoryontheuseofHydroxychloroquinasprophylaxisforSARSCoV2infection.pdf
(60) https://www.history.com/news/black-holes-albert-einstein-theory-relativity-space-time
(61) https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/5937/why-did-einstein-oppose-quantum-uncertainity
(62) Announcement of New Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control Experts Meeting dated 24 February 2020 (in Japanese): https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/newpage_00006.html ; Prevention Measures against Coronavirus Disease, Japan, 25 February 2020 (in Japanese): https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000607629.pdf
(63) Early state of a Japan outbreak: The policies needed to support coronavirus patients, Saito Katsuhisa, Nippon.com, 19 February 2020. Link: https://www.nippon.com/en/news/l00267/early-stage-of-a-japan-outbreak-the-policies-needed-to-support-coronavirus-patients.html
(64) China coronavirus: Wuhan medical staff being infected at much faster pace than reported as national death toll hits 26, South China Morning Post, 24 January 2020. Link: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047441/wuhan-medical-staff-being-infected-virus-much-faster-pace
(65) Coronavirus: shocking footage shows Chinese family being forced into quarantine by police, Evening Standard, 8 February 2020. Link to video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNeTWX7WgwA
(66) Ebola community health workers trained for the future, 10 March 2020. Link: https://www.afro.who.int/news/ebola-community-health-workers-trained-future?fbclid=IwAR2zmg7cus3tbD8LCJZCzCsjFXM_BuQ9o9dhYxNx7z6u7X_cUR0DPwMNkVQ
(67) Sweden’s relaxed approach to the coronavirus could already be backfiring, Time, 9 April 2020. Link: https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/
(68) Spanish soldiers find elderly patients ‘abandoned’ in retirement home, France 24, 24 March 2020. Link: https://www.france24.com/en/20200324-spanish-soldiers-find-elderly-patients-abandoned-in-retirement-homes ; ‘Just sedate old people, pray they live’: with nearly 12k deaths in Spain, Covid-19 suffocates hospitals, News19=8.com, 5 April 2020. Link: https://www.news18.com/news/world/they-just-sedate-old-people-pray-they-live-with-nearly-12k-deaths-in-spain-covid-19-suffocates-hospitals-2564945.html; Pensioner, 84, on lockdown due to coronavirus….Daily Mail, 8 April 2020. Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8201815/Pensioner-84-lockdown-coronavirus-forced-eat-old-food-BIN.html; Burials on New York island are not new but are increasing during pandemic, npr.org, 10 April 2020. Link: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/10/831875297/burials-on-new-york-island-are-not-new-but-are-increasing-during-pandemic ; Mass graves for coronavirus victims shouldn’t come as a shock, The Conversation https://theconversation.com/mass-graves-for-coronavirus-victims-shouldnt-come-as-a-shock-its-how-the-poor-have-been-buried-for-centuries-136655; ‘This whole corridor is dead’: Europe’s coronavirus care home disaster, The Irish Times, 19 May 2020. Link: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/this-whole-corridor-is-dead-europe-s-coronavirus-care-home-disaster-1.4256568 ; Coronavirus: Europe’s care homes struggle as deaths rise, BBC, 3 April 2020. Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52147861 ; A deluged system leaves some elderly to die, rocking Spain’s self-image, New York Times, 25 March 2020. Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/world/europe/Spain-coronavirus-nursing-homes.html
(69) New York Governor Andrew Cuomo criticised over highest nursing home death toll, The New Indian Express, 10 May 2020. Link: https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2020/may/10/new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo-criticised-over-highest-nursing-home-death-toll-2141550.html
(70) Nation-wise data from the International Long Term Care Policy Network, “Mortality associated with COVID among people who use long term care”, updates of 21 May 2020 and 26 June 2020. Link to 26 June 20202 update here: https://ltccovid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Mortality-associated-with-COVID-among-people-who-use-long-term-care-26-June-1.pdf; State-wise data for the USA from Covid-19 brutal on NY long-term care facilities, The Buffalo Post quoting Kaiser Family Foundation data, 26 May 2020. Link: https://buffalonews.com/business/local/covid-19-brutal-on-ny-long-term-care-facilities-nationwide-its-worse/article_739b408b-5d34-5b8d-be83-124047368d2b.html
(71) A deluge of death in Northern Italy, 25 March 2020. Link: https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-LOMBARDY/0100B5LT46P/index.html; ‘We take the dead from morning till night’, The New York Times, 27 March 2020. Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html?auth=login-email&login=email
(72) Mumbai: 25-year-old with no conditions dies after 3 days in hospital, Time of India, 21 April 2020. Link: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/mumbai-25-year-old-with-no-conditions-dies-after-3-days-in-hospital/articleshow/75262442.cms
(73) Coronavirus: with SP and RJ from this Tuesday, all capitals stop trade to reduce the risk of contagion, globo.com, 24 March 2020 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Link: https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2020/03/24/cidades-fecham-comercio.ghtml; Bolsonaro says he ‘wouldn’t feel anything if infected with Covid-19 and attacks state lockdowns, The Guardian, 25 March 2020. Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/bolsonaro-brazil-wouldnt-feel-anything-covid-19-attack-state-lockdowns; Bolsonaro and governors on a collision course, The Brazilian Repot, 26 March 2020. Link: https://brazilian.report/newsletters/brazil-daily/2020/03/26/governors-in-brazil-on-a-collision-course-with-president-bolsonaro/; Rio and 5 other municipalities in the state declare an emergency to contain the coronavirus, g1.globo.com, 18 March 2020 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Link: https://g1.globo.com/rj/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2020/03/18/prefeitura-do-rio-declara-situacao-de-emergencia.ghtml; https://g1.globo.com/rj/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2020/03/17/governo-do-rj-determina-reducao-de-50percent-da-capacidade-de-lotacao-dos-transportes-publicos.ghtml
(74) Data from catcomm.org/favela-facts.
(75) Brazil’s super-rich and the exclusive club at the heart of a coronavirus hotspot, The Guardian, 4 April 2020. Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/brazils-super-rich-and-the-exclusive-club-at-the-heart-of-a-coronavirus-hotspot
(76) Rio’s favela’s count the cost as deadly spread of Covid-19 hits the city’s poor, The Guardian, 25 April 2020. Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/rio-favelas-coronavirus-brazil
(77) Brazil Covid-19 data from https://disasterresponse.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/b16474584d1b43948955ca1462b9e998
(78) Data from https://painel.vozdascomunidades.com.br/
(79) How one of Brazil’s largest favelas confronts coronavirus, Bloomberg, 3 May 2020. Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-05-03/how-one-of-brazil-s-largest-favelas-confronts-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR2L1GWPMDyUgtXBdQGbcEYPbcOQ9jTccTaZiCJHH4GsmHgvshvVUAXS3fg
(80) Brazil’s favelas forced to fight coronavirus alone, DW, 2 July 2020. Link: https://www.dw.com/en/brazils-favelas-forced-to-fight-coronavirus-alone/a-54031886; Data on favelas from https://painel.vozdascomunidades.com.br/ and state-wise Brazil data from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103791/brazil-coronavirus-cases-state/
(81) Malabar Hill resident among 5 new cases, Mumbai Mirror, 21 March 2020. Link: https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/news/malabar-hill-resident-among-5-new-cases/articleshow/74740898.cms
(82) Asia’s largest slum Dharavi reports first Covid-19 case, Economic Times 2 April 2020. Link: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/asias-largest-slum-dharavi-reports-first-case-of-coronavirus/articleshow/74937159.cms ; Number of coronavirus cases in Maharashtra rises to 335, LiveMint, 1 April 2020. Link: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/number-of-coronavirus-cases-in-maharashtra-rises-to-335-11585749948541.html
(83) Mumbai becomes epicentre of Covid-19 positive cases and death reports, The New Indian Express, 5 April 2020. Link: https://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/mumbai/2020/apr/05/mumbai-becomes-epicentre-of-covid-19-positive-cases-and-death-reports-2126173.html
(84) Maharashtra nears 10,000 mark.., NDTV, 29 April 2020. Link: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/maharashtra-nears-10-000-mark-mumbai-has-6-644-coronavirus-cases-2220609
(85) Mumbai Covid19 Tracker: 12 BMC wards report over 1500 positive cases, Mumbai Mirror, 31 May 2020. Link: https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/news/mumbai-covid-19-tracker-12-bmc-wards-report-over-1500-positive-cases-dharavi-dadar-and-mahim-among-citys-worst-hit/articleshow/76120988.cms
(86) Mumbai: In Dharavi 75% infected are frontline workers, Indian Express, 23 May 2020. Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/in-dharavi-75-infected-are-frontline-workers-6423111/
(87) In the week funk dances returned to communities, favelas recorded more than 100 deaths from Covid-19, OGlobo, 8 June 2020 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Link: https://oglobo.globo.com/rio/na-semana-em-que-bailes-funks-voltaram-comunidades-favelas-registram-mais-de-cem-mortes-por-covid-19-1-24468827
(88) In Delhi slums people queue for drinking water ignoring social distancing norms, Business Insider, 18 April 2020. Link: https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/in-delhi-slums-people-queue-for-drinking-water-ignoring-social-distancing-norms/articleshow/75218038.cms
(89) Ramaphosa announces 21day coronavirus lockdown for South Africa, BusinessTech, 23 March 2020. Link: https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/383927/ramaphosa-announces-21-day-coronavirus-lockdown-for-south-africa/
(90) Mzansi reacts to police & army ‘brutality’ during lockdown, TimesLive, South Africa, 31 March 2020. Link: https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-03-31-mzansi-reacts-to-police-army-brutality-during-lockdown-they-must-respect-the-law/
(91) UN Raises alarm about police brutality in Covid-19 lockdowns, Al Jazeera, 28 April 2020. Link: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/raises-alarm-police-brutality-covid-19-lockdowns-200428070216771.html?fbclid=IwAR0luxsHfBtWv1GuDp46YitHRZi5ER3xjfplukqDrK7Hjb5KY5bxSOiUWAE
(92) Maharashtra government seals all hotspots including Dharavi, LiveMint, 9 April 2020. Link: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/mumbai-seals-parts-of-dharavi-11586437129347.html
(93) Coronavirus fallout: From Maharashtra an exodus of migrant workers with no work, The Wire: Science, 22 March 2020. Link: https://science.thewire.in/health/coronavirus-maharashtra-migrant-workers/
(94) Quarantine puts at risk the income of Brazilian slum dwellers, says research, globo.com, 24 March 2020 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Link: https://g1.globo.com/bemestar/coronavirus/noticia/2020/03/24/quarentena-poe-em-risco-a-renda-de-moradores-de-favelas-brasileiras-diz-pesquisa.ghtml
(95) Coronavirus fallout: From Maharashtra an exodus of migrant workers with no work, The Wire: Science, 22 March 2020. Link: https://science.thewire.in/health/coronavirus-maharashtra-migrant-workers/
(96) Ground Report: Chaos at Anand Vihar as buses prepare to take migrant workers home, The Wire, 28 March 2020. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW61drhb8FE; India lockdown: Migrant workers in very large numbers at Delhi’s Anand Vihar bus terminal, The Economic Times, 28 March 2020. Link: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-lockdown-migrant-workers-in-very-large-numbers-at-delhis-anand-vihar-bus-terminal/videoshow/74865929.cms?from=mdr; Watch: Thousands of migrant workers crowd Anand Vihar Bus Terminal amid lockdown, Times of India, 28 March 2020. Link: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/city/delhi/watch-thousands-of-migrant-workers-crowd-anand-vihar-bus-terminal-amid-lockdown/videoshow/74865108.cms; Covid 19 Lockdown: Hungry Helpless Migrant Workers Flee Cities, 29 March 2020, India Today (Video). Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUVGVBNWDZ0; Stranded Migrant workers walk for days to reach home amidst lockdown, CNN News18, 27 March 2020. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgIbqEzdPyg
(97) My kids are hungry, you think Covid-19 is what I fear? News18.com, 29 March 2020. Link: https://www.news18.com/news/india/my-kids-are-hungry-you-think-covid-19-is-what-i-fear-thousands-of-migrant-workers-flee-amid-lockdown-2555453.html
(98) Covid 19 lockdown triggers massive exodus of migrant workers Noida-Agra Highway, CNN News18, 28 March 2020. Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tt8e8owMTGY; Migrant Workers Walking their ways back home say hunger will get them before the virus, CNN News18, 27 March 2020. Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PBD4yBJlJQ; Stranded Migrant workers walk for days to reach home, CNN-New18, 26 Mach 2020. Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgIbqEzdPyg
(99) Des ki baat Ravish Kumar ke saath: Mazdooron ki Majboori, NDTV India, 6 May 2020 (in Hindi), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfdmcaOeWmY; Des ki baat Ravish Kumar ke saath: Mazdooron ki Ghar Waapsi ki Jaddojehad, NDTV India, 11 May 2020 (in Hindi). Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovbpvCLaYL8
(100) Des ki baat Ravish Kumar ke saath: Mazdooron ki Ghar Waapsi ki Jaddojehad, NDTV India, 11 May 2020 (in Hindi). Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovbpvCLaYL8
(101) Des ki baat Ravish Kumar ke saath: Mazdooron ki Majboori, NDTV India, 6 May 2020, (in Hindi) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfdmcaOeWmY
(102) Uddhav Thackrey appeals to migrant workers to stay put, The Hindu Business Line, 28 March 2020. Link: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/uddhav-thackeray-appeals-to-migrant-workers-in-maharashtra-to-stay-put/article31189724.ece
(103) How the coronavirus is impacting favelas in Rio de Janeiro, Forbes, 29 April 2020. Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshualaw/2020/04/29/how-the-coronavirus-is-impacting-favelas-in-rio-de-janeiro/#3023c783ee39
(104) Daulatdia brothel: as clients disappear hunger sets in, The Business Standard, Bangladesh, 8 April 2020. Link: https://tbsnews.net/panorama/daulatdia-brothel-clients-disappear-hunger-sets-66586
(105) ‘This is what happens to us’, The Washington Post, 3 June 2020. Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/coronavirus-race-african-americans/
(106) The social inequalities that the Covid-19 pandemic shows us, Brasil de Fato, 4 April 2020 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Link: https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2020/04/04/artigo-as-desigualdades-sociais-que-a-pandemia-da-covid-19-nos-mostra
(107) To contain coronavirus, residents negotiate end of funk balls in Rocinha, midiamax, 9 June 2020 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Link: https://www.midiamax.com.br/brasil/2020/para-conter-coronavirus-associacao-de-moradores-negociou-fim-dos-bailes-funk-na-rocinha
(108) 1 million Bangladeshi garments workers lose jobs amid Covid-19 economic fallout, mpr.org, 3 April 2020. Link: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/03/826617334/1-million-bangladeshi-garment-workers-lose-jobs-amid-covid-19-economic-fallout
(109) Fury in Kenya over police brutality amid coronavirus curfew, Al Jazeera, 2 April 2020. Link: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/fury-kenya-police-brutality-coronavirus-curfew-200402125719150.html?utm_source=website&utm_medium=article_page&utm_campaign=read_more_links
(110) Lockdown: cops, metro cop face 3 counts of murder and other serious charges, news24.com, 31 March 2020. Link: https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/cops-face-3-counts-of-murder-and-other-serious-charges-amid-lockdown-20200331; Police brutality on the rise during lockdown, IOL, South Africa, 5 April 2020. Link: https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/police-brutality-on-the-rise-during-lockdown-46250431; SANDF issues stern warning after soldiers accused of beating Alexandra man to death, IOL, 12 April 2020. Link: https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/gauteng/sandf-issues-stern-warning-after-soldiers-accused-of-beating-alexandra-man-to-death-46625061?fbclid=IwAR3j00XAzYI5j6rOLwEe5k_VoWiRQYeh4reKfCNLINELcc4JHVRSVt5S8tQ. Also see (28).
(111) Covid-19: Security forces in Africa brutalizing civilians under lockdown, DW, 20 April 2020. Link: https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-security-forces-in-africa-brutalizing-civilians-under-lockdown/a-53192163?fbclid=IwAR1zWI6PygaOesr1Ntw32ShrUyRS2pgbYD7G_E1OCe44d1dnlK0
(112) Court orders suspension of South African soldiers over death of man in lockdown, Reuters, 15 May 2020. Link: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-military/court-orders-suspension-of-south-african-soldiers-over-death-of-man-in-lockdown-idUSKBN22R24O
(113) We’ll keep enforcing lockdown, says French Minister amid unrest, Reuters, 22 April 2020. Link: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-security/french-motorcyclist-whose-crash-fuelled-riots-urges-calm-amid-more-unrest-idUSKCN2240DC
(114) Containment Measures: Police checks must not be abusive, violent or discriminatory, Human Rights League and Others, France, 27 March 2020 (in French). Link: https://www.ldh-france.org/mesures-de-confinement-les-controles-de-police-ne-doivent-etre-ni-abusifs-ni-violents-ni-discriminatoires/
(115) The Religious Retreat that sparked India’s Major Coronavirus Manhunt, Reuters, 2 April 2020. Link: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-islam-insigh/the-religious-retreat-that-sparked-indias-major-coronavirus-manhunt-idUSKBN21K3KF
(116) Tabligh members undergoing treatment…The Economic Times, 3 April 2020. Link: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/tabligh-members-undergoing-treatment-not-cooperating-doctors-to-delhi-govt/articleshow/74969727.cms?from=mdr
(117) Tablighi Jamaat par bole CM Arvind Kejriwal, Navbharat Times, 31 March 2020 (in Hindi). Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNA_OKk4IKE
(118) Coronavirus conspiracy theories targeting Muslims spread in India, The Guardian, 13 April 2020. Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-targeting-muslims-spread-in-india ; ‘Muslim traders not allowed’, reads poster in Indore village, Scroll.in, 3 May 2020. Link: https://scroll.in/latest/960924/muslims-not-allowed-reads-poster-in-indore-village-police-file-case; Gurugram: Youths assault neighbour, 6 of them arrested, Times of India, 7 April 2020. Link: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/gurgaon/youths-assault-neighbour-6-of-them-arrested/articleshow/75018533.cms
(119) Press Release: International Institute for Religious Freedom and Human Rights Without Frontiers. Link: https://www.iirf.eu/news/other-news/cesnur-and-human-rights-without-frontiers-release-white-paper-on-shincheonji-and-coronavirus/ ; Shincheonji & Coronavirus in South Korea: Sorting Fact from Fiction, Human Rights Without Frontiers et al.. Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DRcWhbQ1xoJRs-tkAFp38IWi-3QB8qJX/view
(120) Coronavirus is spreading at religious gatherings, ricocheting across nations, The Wall Street Journal, 18 March 2020. Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-spreading-at-religious-gatherings-ricocheting-across-nations-11584548174
(121) 202 confirmed coronavirus cases in South Africa, BusinessTech, South Africa, 20 March 2020. Link: https://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/383455/202-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-in-south-africa/
(122) Coronavirus: SA’s patient zero and one other are home and all clear, IOL, South Africa, 20 March 2020. Link: https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/kwazulu-natal/coronavirus-sas-patient-zero-and-one-other-are-home-and-all-clear-45296869
(123) Rights in the time of Covid-19, UNAIDS, 20 March 2020. Link: https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/documents/2020/human-rights-and-covid-19
(124) African countries respond to Guangzhou’s ‘Anti Epidemic Measures’, The Diplomat, 27 April 2020. Link: https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/african-countries-respond-to-guangzhous-anti-epidemic-measures/
(125) List of incidents of xenophobia and racism related to the Covid-19 pandemic, Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_xenophobia_and_racism_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic
(126) Covid-19: Bangladesh Army says troops will be on streets until govt recalls, PTI, The Hindu, 29 March 2020. Link: https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/covid-19-bangladesh-army-says-troops-will-be-on-streets-until-govt-recalls/article31197469.ece
(127) Bangladesh: End wave of Covid-19 ‘rumour’ arrests, Human Rights Watch, 31 March 2020. Link: https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/31/bangladesh-end-wave-covid-19-rumor-arrests?fbclid=IwAR0ZW3igg-DHw24SfVWvAdgC-bckCRRaANzt7YQf4fpcSSkdIhFW5G7IOnU
(128) Nigerian security forces kill 18 during curfew enforcement, AL Jazeera, 16 April 2020. Link: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/nigerian-security-forces-kill-18-curfew-enforcement-200416142503603.html?utm_source=website&utm_medium=article_page&utm_campaign=read_more_links
(129) South Africa’s ruthlessly efficient fight against coronavirus, BBC, 3 April 2020. Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52125713?fbclid=IwAR3z4vjmq_PPI2_GB3divYSX3_UKODdSMa6DARgbsLFhHkRm0B8LtjJIyFs
(130) Statement by President Cyril Ramaphosa, 23 April 2020. Link: https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/04/23/statement-by-president-cyril-ramaphosa-on-south-africas-response-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic-union-buildings-tshwane/
(131) Des Ki Baat Ravish Kumar ke Saath, Patri par zindagi lautti hai, yahan majdooron ko mili maut, NDTV India, May 8, 2020, ; Des ki Baat Ravish Kumar ke Saath: Rail ki patriyon par chalta desh, NDTV India, 8 May 2020. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2W2Fq2-BTs&list=PLpSN4vP31-KuS06SnZK5As7hprxvALTQ8&index=59&t=0s; Des ki Baat Ravish Kumar ke Saath Media ko majdooron ki bebassi dikhane se prashasan ki taraf se roka gaya, NDTV India, 8 May 2020. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=og-wP1VqRQY&list=PLpSN4vP31-KuS06SnZK5As7hprxvALTQ8&index=57; Migrant workers: Maharashtra accident victims were battling hunger; The Hindu, 8 May 2020. Link: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/maharashtra-train-accident-victims-were-battling-hunger/article31538217.ece
(132) Mapping accidents that killed over 100 migrant workers on the way home during lockdown, New18.com, 20 May 2020. Link: https://www.news18.com/news/india/mapping-accidents-that-killed-over-100-migrant-workers-on-their-way-to-home-during-nationwide-lockdown-2627947.html; UP migrant walking home dies allegedly of hunger, The Hindu, 17 May 2020. Link: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/up-migrant-walking-home-dies-allegedly-of-hunger/article31609993.ece; Coronavirus lockdown: The Indian migrants dying to get home, BBC, 20 May 2020. Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52672764; 22 migrant workers, kin have died trying to return home since the lockdown started, The Wire, 30 March 2020. Link: https://thewire.in/rights/coronavirus-national-lockdown-migrant-workers-dead; 198 migrant workers killed in road accidents during lockdown: Report, Hindustan Times, 2 June 2020. Link: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/198-migrant-workers-killed-in-road-accidents-during-lockdown-report/story-hTWzAWMYn0kyycKw1dyKqL.html; Walking home, migrant worker dies of sunstroke in Andhra Pradesh, The New Indian Express, 22 May 2020. Link: https://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/vijayawada/2020/may/22/walking-home-migrant-worker-dies-of-sunstroke-in-andhra-pradesh-2146527.html; 378 die on the way home according to this report11 May Des ki Baat Mazdooron ki ghar wapsi ki jaddojehad. Coronavirus lockdown: Deaths in Shramik trains not due to lack of food, water, says government, The Hindu, 5 June 2020. Link: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-lockdown-deaths-in-shramik-trains-not-due-to-lack-of-food-water-says-government/article31759464.ece
(133) India should aim for 10-week total lockdown…India Today, 22 April 2020. Link: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-should-aim-for-10-week-total-lockdown-not-rush-exit-top-health-journal-editor-1669917-2020-04-22
(134) Congo’s Ebola fight has lessons for Covid-19, Human Rights Watch, 26 March 2020. Link: https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/26/congos-ebola-fight-has-lessons-covid-19; Was DR Congo’s Ebola virus outbreak used as a political tool? The Lancet, Editorial, Vol. 393, 12 January 2019. Link: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2819%2930002-9 ;191 Biosocial approaches to the 2013-2016 Ebola Pandemic, Richardson et al., Health and Human Rights Journal, June 2016, 18(1): 115-128. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5070685/.
(135) Ebola and the narrative of mistrust, Richardson et al., BMJ Glob Health 2019 4(6) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6936462/
(136) Bulletin of the World Health Organisation, Jane Parry, 12 December 2005. Link: https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/83/12/news21205/en/; Risky Zoographies: The limits of place in Avian Flu management, Natalie Porter, Environmental Humanities (2012) 1 (1): 103-121. Link https://read.dukeupress.edu/environmental-humanities/article/1/1/103/8073/Risky-Zoographies-The-Limits-of-Place-in-Avian-Flu
(137) China sends medical aid to Pakistan via PoK…HT, 28 March 2020. Link: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/china-sends-medical-aid-to-pakistan-via-pok-dispatches-team-of-experts-to-help/story-K5tpx8meEnXNQ8Q9ITNxGL.html; Doxycycline and Ivermectin combo may be new effective Covid-19 treatment, Medical Dialogues, 18 May 2020. Link: https://medicaldialogues.in/medicine/news/doxycycline-and-ivermectin-combo-may-be-new-effective-covid-19-treatment-65868; 215 Pakistan to start manufacturing Covid-19 treatment drug, Gulf Today, 15 May 2020. Link: https://www.gulftoday.ae/en/news/2020/05/15/pakistan-to-start-manufacturing-covid19-treatment-drug; Bangladesh Medical College Hospital physician see ‘astounding results’ with drug combination targeting Covid-19, TrialSite News, 18 May 2020. Link: https://www.trialsitenews.com/bangladesh-medical-college-hospital-physician-see-astounding-results-with-drug-combination-targeting-covid-19/
(138) Physicians to population ratios reference: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.PHYS.ZS
(139) For 2019 World Bank thresholds for income classification see https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-country-classifications-income-level-2019-2020); Data for beds-per-1000-of-population and percentage of ICU beds taken from the Covid Expert Group’s Report No. 12, dated 26 March 2020 (at (7)). According this report, Lower Income Countries have 1.24 beds per 1000 population on average and High Income Countries have 4.82 beds per 1000 population on average.
(139A) Source: https://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates_country_2004_2008/en/ . In general, I have preferred using WHO data from this year, which was updated in 2011, as this appears to be the last year for which the WHO has received and incorporated comments from other countries.
(140) These calculations are based on WHO mortality estimates for 2008 at https://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates_country_2004_2008/en/ .
(140A) These percentages are NOT from the WHO, they are my calculations are based on WHO estimates for 2008 of tuberculosis incidence here: https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.57040ALL?lang=en and number of tuberculosis deaths) here (see under “by sex”): https://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates_country_2004_2008/en/. The underlying data used by me is in the table below:
Country | Tuberculosis Incidence | Tuberculosis Deaths |
India | 31,40,000 | 2.7 lakh (approx.) |
Italy | 4700 | 400 |
Germany | 4800 | 400 |
France | 6600 | 700 |
USA | 15,000 | 700 |
UK | 9300 | 400 |
Kenya | 2.25 lakh (approx.) | 9700 |
South Africa | 4.86 lakh (approx..) | 19,500 |
Mexico | 24,000 | 2700 |
Sweden | 590 | 100 |
(140B) For tuberculosis incidence in Norway see https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.57040ALL?lang=en . 2002 was a terrible year for tuberculosis in Norway with 100 deaths estimated in that year to this disease against an incidence estimate of 280 cases, giving a crude fatality rate of over 35%. Again this percentage is NOT from the WHO, it is my calculation based on WHO estimates for tuberculosis incidence here: https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.57040ALL?lang=en and for mortality here: https://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates_2000_2002/en/.
(140C) Source: WHO malaria figures for 2016 from here: https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.A1364?lang=en (incidence) and here: https://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates/en/ (mortality) click under ‘By Country WHO Member States, 2016.
(140D) Source: https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.620?lang=en. HIV positive and AIDS cases for US for the year 2010 (later year case incidence is not available) and for other countries for the years 2018.
(140E) Ebola figures from https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ebola-virus-disease
(140F) “Mortality and Burden of Disease Estimates for WHO Member States” issued by WHO’s Department of Measurement and Health Information and “WHO Methods and data Sources for Country-Level Causes of Death 2000-2016” dated 2018.
(140G) Testing data from Worldometer.
(141) AIIMS data from https://www.aiims.edu/images/pdf/annual_reports/annual%20report19-e-20-1-20.pdf
(142) Becker’s Hospital Review data https://www.aiims.edu/images/pdf/annual_reports/annual%20report19-e-20-1-20.pdf
(143) ‘Doctor diplomacy’: Cuba seeks to make its mark in Europe amid Covid-19 crisis, The Guardian, 6 May 2020. Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/doctor-diplomacy-cuba-seeks-to-make-its-mark-in-europe-amid-covid-19-crisis
(144) WHO says Madagascar’s herbal tonic against Covid-19 is not a cure, AL Jazeera, 4 May 2020. Link: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/madagascars-herbal-tonic-covid-19-cure-200504081212753.html?xif= ; Coronavirus: What is Madagascar’s ‘herbal remedy’ Covid-Organics? Al Jazeera, 6 May 2020. Link: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-madagascar-herbal-remedy-covid-organics-200505131055598.html
(145) The use of non-pharmaceutical forms of Artemisia, WHO, 10 October 2019. Link: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/the-use-of-non-pharmaceutical-forms-of-artemisia
(146) ‘WHO commends Madagascar’s fight against Covid-19’, AA.com, Africa, 21 May 2020. Link: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/who-commends-madagascars-fight-against-covid-19/1848550
(147) Covid-19: Tests for miracle cure’ herb Artemisia begin, DW, 15 May 2020. Link: https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-tests-for-miracle-cure-herb-artemisia-begin/a-53442366
(148) Madagascar slams WHO for not endorsing its herbal cure, AA.com, Africa, 11 May 2020. Link: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/madagascar-slams-who-for-not-endorsing-its-herbal-cure/1836905
(149) Overview of malaria treatment, WHO, 18 January 2018. Link: www.who.int/malaria/areas/treatment/overview/en/
(150) Africans, three Ebola experts call for access to trial drug, Los Angeles Times, 6 August 2014. Link: https://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-three-ebola-experts-release-drugs-20140806-story.html
(151) Discovery and description Zaire Virus in 1976…, Breman et al., The Journal of Infectious Disease, October 2016, 15; 214 (Suppl 3): S93-S101. Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5050466/#JIW207C1; Ebola haemorrhagic fever in Zaire, 1976, Report of an International Commission. Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2395567/pdf/bullwho00439-0113.pdf
(152) Ethical considerations of experimental interventions in the Ebola outbreak, Annette Rid and Ezekiel J Emanuel, The Lancet, Vol. 384, 22 November 2014. Link: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(14)61315-5.pdf
(153) Ebola: What it tells us about medical ethics, Angus J. Dawson, The Journal of Medical Ethics 2015; 41: 107-110; Link: https://jme.bmj.com/content/41/1/107; Ebola and ethics: autopsy of a failure, Christian A Gericke, BMJ 2015; 350. Link: https://www.bmj.com/content/350/bmj.h2105
(154) Trial of Ebola drug ZMapp launches in Liberia, US, Centre for Disease Research & Policy, 27 February 2015. Link: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2015/02/trial-ebola-drug-zmapp-launches-liberia-us
(155) Ebola is now curable…wired.com, 8 December 2019. Link: https://www.wired.com/story/ebola-is-now-curable-heres-how-the-new-treatments-work/
(156) Politics around Hydroxychloroquine hamper science, npr.org, 21 May 2020. Link: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/21/859851682/politics-around-hydroxychloroquine-hamper-science?fbclid=IwAR3f9iSiYsnpSkaN7T-wauT0I0D3kWlyB-7_s5QkQhWIFdqhs0EW9xwqxDY)
(157) CSIR chief flays Hydroxychloroquine trial suspension, The Hindu, 30 May 2020. Link: https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/coronavirus-csir-chief-flays-hcq-trial-suspension/article31712065.ece
(158) Global experts go head-to-head over claims the coronavirus ‘no longer exists clinically’, CNBC, 2 June 2020. Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/claim-coronavirus-no-longer-exists-provokes-controversy.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard&fbclid=IwAR2vY80wwIBIiCGbFawFU-75UoYf_junth2xy4ogfbQ8ZKaJqmfX1-YM0Lc
(159) Coronavirus could ‘burn out’ on its own before we have a working vaccine: Former WHO chief, Firstpost, 20 May 2020. Link: https://www.firstpost.com/health/coronavirus-could-burn-out-on-its-own-before-we-have-a-working-vaccine-former-who-chief-8387911.html
(160) Indians in Wuhan say strict lockdown….The Economic Times, 9 April 2020. Link: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indians-in-wuhan-say-strict-lockdown-social-distancing-only-ways-to-contain-covid-19/articleshow/75064547.cms?from; China ends Wuhan lockdown…The New York Times, 7 April 2020. Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/world/asia/wuhan-coronavirus.html
(161) Early missteps and state secrecy in China likely allowed coronavirus to spread farther and faster, The Washington Post, 1 February 2020. Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/01/early-missteps-state-secrecy-china-likely-allowed-coronavirus-spread-farther-faster/
(162) People in China will make 3 billion trips in the next 40 days….Business Insider, 14 January 2020. Link: https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/people-in-china-will-make-3-billion-trips-in-the-next-40-days-to-celebrate-lunar-new-year-the-worlds-largest-annual-human-migration/articleshow/73236413.cms#aoh=15910888889118&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s
(163) SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients, Zou et al., The New England Journal of Medicine 382: 12, 19 March 2020, first published on February 19, 2020. Link: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737
(164) Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany, Rothe et al., The New England Journal of Medicine 382; 10 March 5, 2020, first published on January 30, 2020). Link: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468
(165) The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team, The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – China 2002, China CDC Weekly Vol. 2 No. x, pg 1. Link: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
(166) Bangladesh virus prayer gathering sparks outcry, Taipei Times, 20 March 2020. Link: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2020/03/20/2003733062; Brahmanbaria funeral crowd: Probe body starts investigation, Dhaka Tribune, 20 April 2020. Link: https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/nation/2020/04/20/probe-body-starts-working-over-brahmanbaria-funeral-crowd
(167) FranceInfo Survey: “The majority of people were infected”: from Corsica to overseas….franceinfo.com, 30 March 2020. Link: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/video-coronavirus-le-nombre-de-contaminations-lors-du-rassemblement-evangelique-de-mulhouse-a-ete-largement-sous-evalue_3889133.html
(168) Back to the Future for Influenza Preimmunity – Looking Back at Influenza Virus History to Infer the Outcome of Future Infections, Francis et al., Viruses, 30 January 2019. Link: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/11/2/122
(169) ‘A terrible price’: The deadly racial disparities of Covid-19 in America, The New York Times, 29 April 2020. Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/magazine/racial-disparities-covid-19.html
(170) Racial disparities in Louisiana’s Covid-19 death rate reflect systemic problems, 4WWL, 7 April 2020. Link: https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/racial-disparities-in-louisianas-covid-19-death-rate-reflect-systemic-problems/289-bd36c4b1-1bdf-4d07-baad-6c3d207172f2
(171) We have an appointment with death, Slavoj Zizek, Kultur, 1 April 2020. https://www.welt.de/kultur/article207219549/Slavoj-Zizek-The-epidemic-as-a-date-with-death.html
(172) Debate Noam Chomsky & Michel Foucault, On Human Nature https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wfNl2L0Gf8
(173) Noam Chomsky on Moral Relativism and Michel Foucault https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i63_kAw3WmE
(174) Coronavirus: What’s going wrong in Sweden’s care homes, BBC, 19 May 2020. Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836
(175) Mumbai high rises report spike in Covid-19…..Firstpost, 22 June 2020. Link: https://www.firstpost.com/health/mumbai-high-rises-report-spike-in-covid-19-cases-but-implementation-of-sealing-norms-patchy-bmc-puts-onus-on-housing-societies-8509391.html and High rise in number of positive cases in Mulund, Mumbai Mirror, 13 June 2020. Link: https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mumbai/cover-story/high-rise-in-number-of-of-ve-cases-in-mulund/articleshow/76349782.cms
(176) More than 28,000 stranded Indians have landed in Mumbai since May, MumbaiLive.com, 4 July 2020. Link: https://www.mumbailive.com/en/transport/more-than-28000-stranded-indians-have-landed-in-mumbai-since-may-52292
(177) Updated list of containment zones or red zones in Mumbai as of July 2, Mumbai Live, 3 July 2020. Link: https://www.mumbailive.com/en/civic/containment-zones-list-mumbai-list-coronavirus-lockdown-52242
(178) Source: Mumbai Live Covid Updates
(179) Mumbai: Dharavi sees a drop in new Covid-19 cases and deaths, Mumbai Mirror, 30 June 2020. Link: https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/news/mumbai-dharavi-sees-a-drop-in-new-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/articleshow/76713018.cms
(180) BMC begins to withdraw after 90-day Covid-19 war in Dharavi, Mumbai Mirror, 3 July 2020. Link: https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/news/bmc-begins-to-withdraw-after-90-day-covid-19-war-in-dharavi/articleshow/76769595.cms
(181) Cases as on July 2 https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/coronavirus-in-mumbai-ward-wise-breakdown-of-covid-19-cases-issued-by-bmc-as-of-july-2
(182) Coronavirus: 21 cases found, building on Nepean Sea road sealed, Mumbai Live, 23 June 2020. Link: https://www.mumbailive.com/en/civic/the-bmc-sealed-an-entire-building-nestled-on-the-nepean-sea-road-after-21-cases-of-coronavirus-were-reported-from-the-society.-51737
(183) How Covid hotspot Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum, fought against all odds to flatten the curve, The Print, 14 June 2020 Link: https://theprint.in/india/how-covid-hotspot-dharavi-asias-largest-slum-fought-against-all-odds-to-flatten-the-curve/441036/
(184) BMC has sealed 1,000 buildings in a week, Mumbai Live, 25 June 2020. Link: https://www.mumbailive.com/en/civic/the-surge-in-the-number-of-coronavirus-cases-in-the-suburbs-of-mumbai-has-led-to-the-sealing-of-1000-buildings-in-the-past-eight-days-51856
(185) Coronavirus UK map….BBC, 6 July 2020. Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274
(186) Tegnell: Italian travellers are not the main source of infection, Sweden, SVT Nyheter, 2 May 2020 (in Swedish). https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/tegnell-italienresenarerna-inte-storsta-kallan-till-smitta ; ‘Coronavirus came to Sweden from countries that were under our radar’: Public Health Agency chief, The Local, 11 June 2020. Link: https://www.thelocal.se/20200611/public-health-agency-head-coronavirus-came-to-sweden-from-countries-that-were-under-our-radar
(187) Critics question Swedish approach as coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000, The Guardian, 15 April 2020. Link https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000
(188) Large reduction in travel by public transport in the county, Sweden, KalmarPosten, 15 April 2020 (in Swedish). Link: https://www.kalmarposten.se/article/stor-minskning-av-resande-med-kollektivtrafik-i-lanet/ ; Travel halved at Skanetrafiken, Sweden, Aftonbladet, 25 March 2020 (in Swedish). Link: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Op7rjq/resandet-halverat-hos-skanetrafiken ; West traffic takes the corona crisis very seriously, GT, expressen.se, Sweden, 8 April 2020 (in Swedish). Link: https://www.expressen.se/gt/debatt-gt/vasttrafik-tar-coronakrisen-pa-allra-storsta-allvar/
(189) Close to every third car away from Stockholm’s streets, Omni, Sweden (in Swedish). Link: https://omni.se/nara-var-tredje-bil-borta-fran-stockholms-gator/a/awQ7jL
(190) Stockholmers stay home at Easter,, SVT Nyheter, Sweden, 9 April 2020 (in Swedish). Link: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/stockholmare-stannar-hemma-i-pask ; Travel from Stockholm during Passover, Telia.se, 9 April 2020 (in Swedish). Link: http://press.telia.se/pressreleases/svenskarna-stannar-hemma-under-paasklovet-2990179
(191) I call Foucault a “post-modernist” here with apologies to him. He famously disliked being called this. Certainly, his message was more profound and more delicate than the term allowed. In fact, Foucault was at his most Foucauldian when rejecting this label. Categorisation subtracts from the whole of what is being said. This is precisely the attitude we, especially scientists and doctors, need to adopt in the present crisis.
(192) Appendix-A & B; Appendix-C; Appendix-D; Appendix-E
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